GAO Report on ACA Impact on Employer Health Coverage Shows Mixed Results

The question of whether the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act will result in more Americans having health insurance through their employers remains unresolved, according to a newly released report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO). The report finds projections range from a 2.5 percent decrease to a 2.7 percent increase in the number of employees with coverage in the near term, depending on the study. Increases in coverage were projected in three of the five studies reviewed by the GAO that employed microsimulation models. The three studies were conducted by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the RAND Corp. and the Urban Institute/Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

The Congressional Budget Office, meanwhile, projected a 2.5 percent net decrease in coverage. The Lewin Group projected a net decrease of 1.6 percent, according to the findings.

The GAO study was conducted to determine whether the availability of subsidized health insurance through insurance exchanges, or the individual mandate requiring most people to obtain health insurance, would affect whether employers offer health insurance to their workers. Without the individual mandate, four microsimulation studies estimated that between 2 million and 6 million fewer people would have employer-sponsored coverage, the GAO found.

With many of the ACA's mandates and requirements on employers set to take effect in 2014, coalitions have an important role to play in monitoring these developments and keeping their employer members informed.